TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 29, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7305, 0.7360 and 0.7380.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. An Australian private capital expenditure figure will be announce at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9055, 0.9030, 0.9020 and 0.8990. The EURGBP may continue to find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.9095.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to uptrend and be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1645, 1.1620, 1.1600 and 1.1535.  A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.2930. The GBPUSD has moved below the trend support area and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2805, 1.2830 and 1.2930.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has moved above the recent consolidation area. Price action has formed a swing higher and the moving averages have just crossed bullish, all suggesting that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal support at 0.6670 and around the trend support area. An attempt to swing higher may find resistance around the recent swing  high at 0.6725.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be announced at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2985 and 1.3005 and around the trend resistance area. The USDCAD could continue to find support around the recent lows at 1.2900.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. If price starts retracing, shorting opportunities could exist around any of the new Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9810 and 0.9820. The USDCHF may find support around the recent swing low at 0.9745.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal support at 111.00. The USDJPY is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and are also moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 111.00 and the recent swing high at 111.50. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.65 and 110.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD reversed off the channel resistance area and has since found support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the horizontal level at 1199.35 and around the channel support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the channel resistance area.

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