Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 30.04-04.05.2018

EUR/USD

After a prolonged fall throughout the week, the Euro adjusted upward on Friday. It is worth noting that despite the fact that the growth was quite sharp, the movement was on the average volume. Given the presence of the volume resistance level of 1.2183 – 1.2196, as well as a strong local downtrend, it is still worth giving preference to sales with this instrument.

Short positions can be opened after the stoppage of the upward correction and the resumption of the confident drop of the price. A stop loss should be placed just above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound showed a rapid drop of the price on the very large volume, which is a strong signal for the continuation of the downtrend. It is also necessary to allocate a new volume support level, which stopped the price drop, it is the level of 1.3756.

Thus, sales can be opened only after the price continues to fall and breakdown the support level. The breakout movement must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

USD/JPY

After the formation of the new volume resistance level of 109.46, the Yen sharply adjusted downwards. Now the pair is trading between this mark and the support of 108.36 – 108.48. Nevertheless, given the strong uptrend, it is still worth giving preference to purchases.

Long positions can be opened after the resumption of the price growth and a sure breakout of the resistance level. The breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a stronger bullish signal. A stop loss must be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 100 points.

USD/CAD

The price tested the local maximum/resistance level of 1.2892, after which it showed a significant drop. At the moment, the pair is trading in the local consolidation between this mark and the support of 1.2819. Therefore, the best scenario will be to wait for a confident and sharp breakdown of one of these levels, which will be an excellent signal for entering the market.
While the pair is within the range, it is better to stay out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has also corrected and is testing the resistance level of 0.7589 now. The growth of the pair was  on the small volume, so our previous scenario remains relevant: short positions should be in priority. Sales can be opened after the end of the correction and a resumption of the sharp decline of the pair. A stop loss should be located a little above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is 100-110 points.

XAU/USD

Despite the price increase on Friday, we can not consider long positions at the moment, as the movement was on the small volume + gold was falling down on the large volume the whole last week.

Nevertheless, sales can be opened only after a sure breakdown of the level of support on the large volume, which will be an excellent bearish signal. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is 130 points.

The sentiment: this indicator confirms our scenarios with the Euro, Pound, Yen and the Australian dollar. With the Canadian dollar, we should give preference to purchases, but it is worth waiting for the pair to exit the range. With gold, despite the fact that the sentiment indicates the priority of purchases, short positions should be in priority, as all technical factors point to the further drop of the price.

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