Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 18-22.12.2017

EUR/USD

At the moment the price is in the local consolidation between two volume levels: the resistance 1.1838-1.1846 and the support 1.1729. The price is located near the lower limit of this consolidation now. Also it is worth noting that the price showed a rapid fall at the end of last week, so we can consider the scenario of continuing the downward movement and breakdown of the support, which will be an excellent bearish signal. The breakdown movement must be sharp and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is up to 110 points.

GBP/USD

Despite a sharp fall of the price on Friday, the situation on the Pound is quite complicated, as volume on the market was very small, so it is impossible to single out any specific volume level.

Nevertheless, taking into account the sharp fall of the price, we can consider the scenario of opening short positions after the appearance of large volume and the continuation of the fall. A stop loss should be placed a little above the beginning of the rapid fall of the pair. The potential of the deal is 100-110 points.

USD/JPY

The Yen has corrected on Friday and is now near the resistance level 112.72 – 112.86, in which large volume is concentrated and which has already been tested at the price last week. Thus, before breakdown of this mark, it is worth giving preference to short positions for this pair. Short positions can be opened after a sharp rebound of the price down. It is desirable that the price rebound should be on increased volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entry. A stop loss should be placed a little above the resistance level. The target is 111.43.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar is trading in the consolidation between the support 1.2723 and the resistance 1.2906. Given the sharp price growth on Friday and the fact that the pair is trading near the resistance now, we can consider the scenario of a breakout of this mark, which will allow us to open purchases. The breakout movement must be strong and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed just below the breakout volume bar. The deal’s potential is more than 150 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar also adjusted to the support level of 0.7614 – 0.7626, in which a large volume is concentrated. Nevertheless, given the fact that the volume during the fall was small, our previous scenario of opening purchases is still actual: we can open long positions after the resumption of the price growth on large volume. A stop loss should be placed a little below the support level. The deal potential is 70 points.

XAU/USD

On gold it is necessary to allocate two new volume levels: 1251.00 and 1261.80, exactly between which the price is locked. Also it is worth noting that quite large volume is concentrated in this local consolidation, so the best solution will be to wait for the price to come out of this range.

The breakout movement must be rapid and strong + on large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market. In addition, it will insure us against false breakout.
While the price is in the consolidation, it’s worth to be out of the market.

Sentiment: this indicator confirms our deals for the Pound, as well as for the Canadian and the Australian dollars. For the Euro and gold, this indicator does not play a role, since these instruments are in consolidations. For the Yen  we should wait for the reaction of the price on the level.

The bottom line: the situation on the market is quite puzzled, because volume was too small last week. Anyway, there are a couple of interesting scenarios, such as short long positions for AUD/USD and exit of gold from the range.

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