TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 12, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price became bearish around the longer-term moving average. The bearish move quickly reversed though – the AUDUSD continues to retrace. Price recently broke to the downside of a clear consolidation, suggesting that the AUDUSD could attempt a swing lower. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, signalling that the current retrace move could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7555 and around any of the key Fib levels. An attempt to swing lower could find support around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.7500.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will speak at 2215 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent low at 0.8695 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8850. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The President of European Central Bank will speak at 1900 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 1.1805. Price is now moving sideways and is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are also moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.1735 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1805. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1830, 1.1875 and 1.1930.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The President of the European Central Bank will speak at 1900 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD is finding support around the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Just like other currency pairs, the GBPUSD is looking indecisive and is ranging (1.3330-1.3515). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.3220. If price breaks to the upside, the GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3545.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous resistance at 0.6905. The NZDUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction. Price is now attempting a move above the consolidation area. If the NZDUSD does close above the consolidation resistance at 0.6945. price could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6905 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been moving off the tighter horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move within 2 horizontal channels; 1.2815-1.2870 and 1.2640-1.2905. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both horizontal channels and if the USDCAD moves out of either channel (break-out trades).
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF is still looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9745, 0.9885 and 0.9970.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. If price continues to retrace, opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal support at 113.25, around the previous swing high at 113.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 112.05 and 111.80. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has swung lower and continues to downtrend. GOLD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the identified horizontal levels at 1251.00 and 1262.60. GOLD could find support around the recent low at 1241.40 and the channel support area.
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