TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 05, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.12.2017

The AUDUSD has been bullish and has moved above the recent consolidation area. Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. If the AUDUSD starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7640 and 0.7620, around the channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. A Australian GDP figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.12.2017

Price moved below the horizontal channel support area but quickly reversed bullish and is now attempting a move higher. The EURGBP continues to look a bit choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the recent consolidation – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8760, 0.8830, 0.8835 and 0.8980 and around the diagonal resistance area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 05.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. As also suggested, the EURUSD is now reversing off the previous trend support area. Price is moving sideways and is choppy. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1830 and the recent swing high at 1.1930. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURUSD does break-out, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1720 and 1.1960. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.12.2017

The GBPUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but price has since moved lower. The GBPUSD has been up-trending and is currently in a bearish retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bearish, signalling that price may struggle to swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3375. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3515 and 1.3545.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6900. Price continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6780, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6900 and 0.6945 and around the diagonal support areas.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.12.2017

Price has moved below the recent consolidation support area but the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt a move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous consolidation support area at 1.2670, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

Canadian trade balance is at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive. The USDCHF has moved out of the bearish channel and is now ranging between the recent low at 0.9745 and the horizontal level at 0.9875. The moving averages are crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9945.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 05.12.2017

The USDJPY has been bearish and has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The overall trend is up though. Price is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 111.80. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 113.00 and 113.25 and around the channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.12.2017

GOLD continues to be choppy and indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1271.45, 1287.05 and 1298.35.  The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move. If GOLD closes below the horizontal support at 1271.45, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower.

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