TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 04, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal levels at 0.7555 and 0.7595 before moving higher. The AUDUSD continues to range between the recent low at 0.7530 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7645. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

Australian current account and retail sales figures will be released at 0030 UTC. This is followed by a Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement at 0330 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to move within the horizontal channel at 0.8785-0.8840 and has been reversing around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the EURGBP may break to the downside of the horizontal channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has become indecisive. Price is moving sideways and is looking a little choppy. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1830 and the recent swing high at 1.1930. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURUSD does break-out, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1720 and 1.1960. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been up-trending. As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3375.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. From a technical analysis view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. The NZDUSD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6780, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6900 and 0.6945.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will speak at 0015 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been very bearish. Price is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. From a technical analysis view, there are very few areas that may provide trading opportunities (just like NZDUSD). The USDCAD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2675 and 1.2905. If price moves below the horizontal support at 1.2675, the USDCAD could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF broke to the downside of the range and was very bearish. Price quickly reversed bullish though and has retraced the recent downside move. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the USDCHF is down-trending with the channel. Price is looking a little choppy and indecisive though. Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.9880. A move to the downside could reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9745 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the USDJPY is currently up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.70, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 113.25 and 113.90.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected and has reversed off the identified horizontal levels at 1287.05 and 1271.45. GOLD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1271.45, 1287.05 and 1298.35. If price closes below the horizontal support at 1271.45, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower.

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