TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 15, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the bearish momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7610 and 0.7635, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has found resistance around the recent highs at 0.8975 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy but recent price action has been bullish. Price action has formed an aggressive bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that the EURGBP could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the horizontal level at 0.8940 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 0.8975 and the bullish channel resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a MPC Speech at 1300 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved much higher. The EURUSD is now above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1830.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price was rejected and reversed off the horizontal support level at 1.3070 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3045, 1.3070, 1.3220 and 1.3310.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a MPC Speech at 1300 UTC. US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been bearish but is currently retracing some of the recent downside move. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the bearish momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6895, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6850 and 0.6830. The NZDUSD still looks a little choppy and indecisive.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has become indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2665 and the recent swing high at 1.2800. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF has moved below the bearish channel support area and has been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance), around the recent swing low at 0.9925, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been very bearish. Price is moving below the consolidation area, signalling that the USDJPY could move lower. If price can retrace, selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 113.15 and 113.30 and around the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1265.30, 1271.50, 1279.00 and 1287.85.
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