TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 13, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 0.7630-0.7725. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Price action has formed a second tighter horizontal channel at 0.7630-0.7695. Trading opportunities may exist around both horizontal channels support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of either channel (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. From a technical view, there are very few areas that may provide trading opportunities. Price could stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8735, 0.8795, 0.8820, 0.8940 and 0.8970.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been rejected and has slightly reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.1670. Price is still indecisive but the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.1615. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1675 and 1.1735.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like most other currency pairs, the GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3045, 1.3090, 1.3220 and 1.3310.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is indecisive but has been slightly bullish. The NZDUSD has formed a series of choppy higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6895 and 0.6880. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6970 and around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is down-trending – price has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and also a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.2700, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A swing lower could find support around the channel support area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price is below the recent consolidation area and has formed a swing lower, all suggesting that the USDCHF may start down-trending. The moving averages are also bearish and are widening and price action has formed a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.9975 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9925 and around the bearish channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 113.70 and the bearish channel resistance area. The USDJPY is down-trending within a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all signalling that price could move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 113.70. If the USDJPY does swing lower, price could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 113.15 and the bearish channel support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan will speak at 1745 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1265.30, 1274.80 and 1287.85.
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