TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 07, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal channel support area. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 0.7630-0.7725. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has found support around the 61.8% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The recent retrace move has been very strong and the moving averages look like they may cross bearish, signalling that the EURGBP could struggle to swing higher. Price is also looking a little indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the 61.8% Fib level, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8735 and 0.8940.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank will speak at 0930 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has found support around the recent lows and horizontal support area at 1.1580. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. The EURUSD could be rejected or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1580, 1.1620, 1.1675, 1.1735 and 1.1830. If price moves below the recent support at 1.1580, the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank will speak at 0930 UTC today. There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has reversed around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower. The GBPUSD does continue to look choppy and indecisive though. Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3105 and 1.3045.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal support area at 0.6875. The moving averages are slightly bullish and are steady, suggesting that the NZDUZD may swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 0.6875. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7005.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2805. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.2645.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak at 1755 UTC today. There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal level at 0.9935 and the horizontal resistance at 1.0035. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 113.70 and the recent high at 114.60. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Fed Speech scheduled for 1930 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1265.30-1281.40. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
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