TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 02, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the symmetrical triangle resistance area and has since been bullish. As also suggested, price has stalled at the consolidation resistance area. The AUDUSD continues to consolidate between the recent lows at 0.7630 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7720. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous symmetrical triangle and the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by an Australian Retail Sales figure at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continued to be bearish and moved below the bearish channel support area. Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8800, 0.8825, 0.8840 and 0.8855. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent low at 0.8735.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The Bank of England will Announce Rates at 1200 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Press Conference at 1230 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price initially moved below the tight horizontal channel but the EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed another horizontal channel at 1.1610-1.1660. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the recent low at 1.1580. If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.1735.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area at 1.3320. The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive and continues to range between the recent lows at 1.3080 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3320. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The Bank of England will Announce Rates at 1200 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Press Conference at 1230 UTC. US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD found support around the previous horizontal channel resistance area and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening and price action has formed a higher swing high and a higher swing low, signalling that price could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6880. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6940 and 0.7000.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is no longer up-trending and has moved below the recent bullish channel support area. The USDCAD is now moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2905. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has struggled to form a swing higher and has reversed bearish around the recent highs at 1.0035. Price is ranging between the recent highs and the recent swing low at 0.9935. Price is also moving between the recent highs and the trend support area. Trading opportunities may exist around both consolidation areas and if the USDCHF moves out of either consolidation area (break-out trade). Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 112.95 and the horizontal resistance at 114.25. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently– confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 112.40.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like most USD pairs, GOLD is indecisive. The moving confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1265.30-1281.40. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal level at 1290.10.
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