TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 31, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has been down-trending but is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are tightening and are also moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.7630 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7720. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has continued to find support around the bearish channel support area. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8845, 0.8850 and 0.8890, around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The EURGBP may continue to find support around the channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to retrace and be bullish. The EURUSD has formed a swing lower and is below the recent consolidation area, suggesting that price could attempt a swing lower and start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1735.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. Price could reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3080, 1.3275 and 1.3320.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has struggled to swing lower and continues to retrace. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Price seems to be ranging between the recent lows at 0.6830 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6880. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the NZDUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6940 and 0.7000.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. New Zealand Employment figures will be released at 2145 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is still within the bullish channel but the USDCAD is also within a tight horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2850. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel support and resistance areas.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC. There will be a Bank of Canada Speech at 1930 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the previous swing high at 0.9935. The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish but are tightening, signalling that price could become indecisive and may struggle to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9935 and 0.9875. A bullish move may reverse around the recent high at 1.0025.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bearish and has moved below the recent bullish channel. Price is below a recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that the USDJPY could attempt to move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing lows at 113.25 and 113.45, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous bullish channel support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bullish and has been retracing the recent swing lower. Price is slightly bearish and down-trending. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1281.60 and 1283.65. A move to the downside may find support around the recent lows at 1265.30.
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