TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 27, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and price action has formed a bearish channel, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7720. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price action has formed a bearish channel though and a short series of of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, all suggesting that the EURGBP may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.8885, around the bearish moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8850 and around the channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has moved below the recent consolidation area. The EURUSD could now start down-trending. If price pulls-back, opportunities to sell may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1685 and 1.1735 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the consolidation area and was bullish. The GBPUSD quickly reversed though and has re-entered the consolidation area. Price is indecisive and moving between a number of horizontal levels. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3100, 1.3220, 1.3275 and 1.3320. If the GBPUSD moves below the horizontal support at 1.3100, price may attempt a bearish move lower.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD reversed bearish around the shorter-term moving average and is now forming a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. They are starting to move sideways though, signalling that the NZDUSD could be due a bullish retrace move. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6940 and 0.7000.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has continued to be bullish and has been finding resistance around the bullish channel resistance area. Price continues to move within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDCAD may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price found support around the identified horizontal support level at 0.9875 and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9935 and 0.9875, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight. Price is ranging between the recent highs at 114.20 and the horizontal support at 113.25. Price is also moving within a slight bullish channel. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both channels and if the USDJPY moves out of either channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish and is forming a swing lower. Price has been slightly down-trending. The moving averages are slightly bearish, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1271.85, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified trend resistance area.
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