TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 25, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price has moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7735, 0.7750 and 0.7775 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.8855 and the recent highs at 0.9025. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1685, 1.1735, 1.1850 and 1.1880.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the previous bearish channel resistance area. Just like some other USD pairs, the GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are tight – confirming the market indecision. Price could reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3220 and 1.3320 and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support). There could be a break-out trading opportunity if the GBPUSD moves out of the identified symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the horizontal channel at 1.3100-1.3220.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. If price starts retracing, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6940, 0.7000 and 0.7055.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has moved higher and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2650, 1.2595 and 1.2575.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Bank of Canada will Announce Rates at 1400 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of Canada Press Conference at 1515 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bullish around the shorter-term moving average and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9880, 0.9835 and 0.9830, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has struggled to form a swing higher and the moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, all suggesting that buying momentum could be weakening. The USDJPY may start ranging between the recent highs at 114.05 and the recent swing low at 113.25. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 113.10.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Durable Goods Orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD is finding support around the horizontal support at 1273.00. Price is moving within a couple of bearish consolidation patterns. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the patterns and if GOLD moves out of the patterns (break-out trades). The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price could break to the downside. If GOLD breaks to the upside, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1290.20.
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