Despite the pretty sharp fall on Friday, the Euro is still trading in the global consolidation between two strong levels. The first one is the resistance 1.1870, the second – 1.1680 – 1.1699. Given this fact we can consider that out previous scenario is still actual: we can enter the market only after a confident breakout of one of these levels. The move should be supported by increased/large volume.
Until that it is better to stay out of the market.
The Pound is also locked in the range between two volume levels: the support 1.3049 and the resistance 1.3318. So the scenario of its trading in totally the same as for the Euro: we can consider new deals only after the exit of the pair from the range on large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market.
While the pair is trading in the consolidation, we should skip this instrument from our trading plan.
The Yen continued growing after a breakout of the previous resistance, so now we should consider exceptionally long positions for this currency pair.
We can enter the market after the resumption of the growth. Perfectly, if the price corrects down and then start going up. A stop loss should be placed below the level 113.05. A potential of the deal is 100-110 pips.
The pair grew up strongly on Friday. The move was really sharp and on huge volume, which is a great bullish signal. Given such a fact, we should consider long positions as a priority scenario at the moment. We should enter the market after a smooth downward correction to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the new support level 1.2558 – 1.2570, where large volume is concentrated. A potential of the growth is around 140 pips.
AUD/USD fell down sharply and broke down the lower boundary of the local consolidation, which is a good bearish signal. In such a case we can consider opening short positions for this pair.
We can enter the market after the resumption of the sharp fall. A stop loss should be placed above the beginning of the abrupt move. A potential of the deal is 50-60 pips.
Gold fell down on Friday and totally absorbed the previous growth of the price. Now the instrument is trading near the support level 1277.40, where large volume is concentrated. Given the sharp fall and the fact, that there is no significant reaction of the price to the level, we should consider the breakdown of this level, which will give us an opportunity to open short positions.
The breakdown move should be sharp and on large volume in order to obtain a more accurate and safe entry point. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is up to 150 pips.
Sentiment: our scenarios on the Yen, Canadian and Australian dollars, as well as gold, are confirmed by the mood of the market.
The bottom line: there are a couple of good scenarios at the moment, especially USD/JPY and USD/CAD, but overall the situation is a bit complicated, so we need to watch for good confirming signals.