TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 09, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 09.10.2017

The AUDUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.7790, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7870. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 09.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8890. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8990.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 09.10.2017

Price is indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1685 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1780. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the identified diagonal resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 09.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been retracing some of the recent swing low. The GBPUSD has been clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the bearish momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous bearish channel, around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3230 and 1.3285. A move to the downside may bounce around the recent low at 1.3030.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 09.10.2017

The NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and close lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7150. There is a chance that the NZDUSD could start ranging between the recent lows at 0.7060 and the minor horizontal resistance at 0.7095.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 09.10.2017

Price is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The USDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways, suggesting that price may become indecisive. The USDCAD could start moving sideways within a horizontal channel at 1.2450-1.2595. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 09.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has formed a swing higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. An attempt to swing higher could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9830 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 09.10.2017

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the clear horizontal support area at 112.25 and the recent high at 113.40. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight, moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 111.50 and 111.20.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 09.10.2017

GOLD broke to the downside of the recent consolidation but price quickly reversed and has been bullish. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, suggesting that GOLD could become indecisive. Price action is currently forming a higher swing high though, signalling that GOLD may become bullish. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous trend resistance area and around the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1289.60 and 1291.50.

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