TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 03, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has continued to be bearish. Price is struggling to form a major swing lower and the moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, all suggesting that the AUDUSD could become bullish and retrace some of the recent bearish move. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal support area at 0.7800. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the identified diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7865 and 0.7915.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price is looking indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 0.8745 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8900. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a bullish channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support and resistance areas. Trading opportunities may also exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8745, 0.8865, 0.8890 and 0.8900 and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
UK Construction PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD continues to downtrend and has swung lower. The moving averages are tight, signalling that downside momentum is weakening and that price could start retracing. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.1720, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been very bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that the current downtrend may continue. If price starts retracing, shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3360. The GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
UK Construction PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has closed below the range support area and is currently attempting a bearish move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support at 0.7170, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to be bullish and uptrend within a bullish channel. Price is looking a little over-extended now, suggesting that the USDCAD may start retracing and become bearish. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2520, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2410 and 1.2320.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has stalled around the bullish channel resistance area and is currently attempting a bearish move. The USDCHF is looking a little choppy but is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the slight indecision. Long opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 0.9760, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9670 and 0.9655. Price could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price is finding resistance around the range resistance area and is now attempting a bearish move (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 112.25 and the recent highs at 113.20. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.50 and 111.20.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is consolidating within a bearish triangle pattern. Recent price action has been bearish and price has been down-trending. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1289.60 and 1291.50. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could move lower.
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