TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 29, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7865 and 0.7915. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area and around the recent lows at 0.7810.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to move sideways and lack momentum. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the recent lows at 0.8745 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8810. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The EURGBP is also moving within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK Current Account figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1400 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level. Price is struggling to swing lower though and the bearish moving averages are tightening, all signalling that the current retrace may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1870. A swing to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support and recent lows at 1.1715.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has moved above the recent bearish channel. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive or attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the recent bearish channel and around the shorter-term moving average. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.3475 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3595.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Current Account figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1400 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price action has formed a clear horizontal channel at 0.7175-0.7235. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the NZDUSD may become very bearish and start down-trending.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is clearly up-trending within a bullish channel – price action has formed several higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace phase and is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that buying momentum is still strong. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2410. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area. If the USDCAD moves below the channel support area, price may find support around the horizontal support at 1.2320.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price is consolidating between the horizontal support at 0.9655 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCHF could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9575.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY is consolidating – price is moving sideways and looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways also – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is moving within a horizontal channel at 111.50-113.20. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is retracing some of the recent bearish swing. Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1289.55 and 1291.50 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.
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