TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 26, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and move between horizontal support and resistance levels. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7915, 0.8080 and 0.8120 and around the bearish channel resistance area. If price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7915, the AUDUSD could start trending lower but may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bouncing off the horizontal channel support area. The EURGBP continues to consolidate within the horizontal channel at 0.8780-0.8900. Price action has also formed a descending triangle pattern. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if the EURGBP moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.9040.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has moved below the recent consolidation area and has started trending lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous range support area at 1.1870, around the previous symmetrical triangle support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3475 and the recent highs at 1.3595 but is currently attempting to break to the downside of the range. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous range support area, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the moving averages. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3450, 1.3320 and 1.3160.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD bounced off the horizontal support at 0.7250. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive though. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7195, 0.7245, 0.7340 and 0.7405.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD found support around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bullish. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.2360, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. The USDCAD could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend support area. The USDCHF is still looking a little indecisive though. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price may bounce off the identified bearish channel support and resistance areas, this may provide trading opportunities. If the USDCHF moves below the trend support area and the horizontal level at 0.9640, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the previous trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Just like other currency pairs, the USDJPY is a little indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 111.20 and the recent highs at 112.65. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Speech from the chair of the Federal Reserve at 1645 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD broke to the upside of the tight horizontal channel and the bearish channel. Price has since been bullish. The moving averages are tightening and are likely to cross bullish, suggesting that GOLD could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 1297.80 and 1289.60 and around the previous bearish channel resistance area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1315.65 and 1334.50.
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