TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 22, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved below the recent consolidation area but is still looking choppy and indecisive. The moving confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are tight. Price action has formed some lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting that the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7940 and around the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel support area. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 0.8780-0.8900. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.9040.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by a Brexit speech by the British Prime Minister Theresa May.
There are major political elections in Germany this weekend. Markets may gap when re-opening Sunday evening (UTC).
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has moved strongly off the symmetrical triangle support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.1870-1.2020 and the identified symmetrical triangle. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if the EURUSD moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD may be rejected or reverse around the recent high at 1.2080. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and providing no clear trend direction – confirming the market indecision.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.
There are major political elections in Germany this weekend. Markets may gap when re-opening Sunday evening (UTC).
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been reversing around the support and resistance areas of the current range. Price continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.3475 and the recent highs at 1.3595. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the previous resistance at 1.3320.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The British Prime Minister Theresa May will give a Brexit speech sometime this morning (UTC).
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved out of the recent bullish channel and below the moving averages, signalling that buying momentum has weakened. The moving averages are moving sideways and tightening, suggesting that the NZDUSD may become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7195, 0.7245 and 0.7405.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There are major political elections in New Zealand today. Markets may gap when re-opening Sunday evening (UTC).
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. The USDCAD is clearly up-trending within a bullish channel. Price is currently retracing some of the recent upside swing. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing highs at 1.2305 and 1.2215 and around the bullish channel support area. The USDCAD could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
Canadian Retail Sales and CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has formed a new swing high. Price is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9670 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to o long could exist around the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9670 and 0.9640 and around the trend support area. A bullish move may be rejected or bounce around the recent swing high at 0.9740.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has retraced below the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average, suggesting that the upside momentum is weak. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling that the USDJPY could become indecisive. Price may start ranging between the recent high at 112.65 and the horizontal support at 111.20. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price may reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the bearish channel support area and is now retracing some of the recent bearish swing. Price is clearly down-trending and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages suggest that the selling momentum may continue – they are bearish and steady. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1305.50 and 1315.65 and around the channel resistance area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
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