After a strong fall of the price on Wednesday, the Euro showed an upward correction on Thursday. The pair broke out the resistance, but the move was smooth and on low volume, so we can’t consider it as a reversal signal (we can deliberate long positions after a sure breakout of the local maximum).
On the other hand, short positions can be opened only after a resumption of the fall on large volume. Anyway, we should wait for an appearance of increased/large volume and watch for the reaction of the price on it.
From the current level, there is no good situation for trading.
The pound is still trading in the local consolidation. The price grew up quite sharply yesterday and now is trading near the upper limit of the consolidation. Also we need to point out that this range contains really large volume, so the exit of the price from it will be a great signal for entering the market. The move should be abrupt and supported by increased/large volume.
While the price is in the consolidation, we should stay out of the market.
The price corrected down yesterday and broke down the level of support. The move was quite sharp, but on small volume, so we can’t consider it as a reversal signal. That’s why we still should give preference to long positions. We can enter the market after a stoppage of this correction and a resumption of the growth. An upward move should be supported by increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the level 111.18. A potential of the deal is at least 120 pips.
The price is trading in the local consolidation near the resistance level 1.2345 – 1.2368, in which large volume is concentrated. So that out previous scenario remains the same: we need to wait for a confident breakout of the resistance on large volume and then we can open long positions. A stop loss should be placed below a breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 100-110 pips.
The fall of the price continued and the pair broke out the level of support/lower boundary of the range. The move was sharp, but on small volume. So that short positions are in priority now, but we can open them only after appearance of an additional signal. Such a signal is a strong bearish momentum on large volume. A stop loss should be placed above this level. A potential of the deal is more than 50 pips.
On Thursday, XAU/USD continued its downward movement. It should be noted that the price fall was on small volume, and as soon as the average volume appeared on the market, the price stopped and began trading near a local minimum. During the Asian session this instrument corrected to the level of resistance 1300.80 – 1303.40. It should be noted that the price growth was on very small volume, so this movement should not be regarded as a market reversal.
Thus, our scenario of opening short positions remains in force. We can enter the market after the resumption of the fall of the price on increased volume. Even better, if the price tests the resistance level, then starts going down precipitously. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance level, or a test of this level (whichever is higher). The potential of the deal is 120-130 points.
The sentiment: this indicator has not reacted on the changed on the market yet. So we should be careful using it.
The bottom line: the situation of the market is pretty tough as almost all instruments are correcting or trading in ranges. So that we should be extremely careful today.