TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 21, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and then was bullish. The bullish move has been reversed though and price is back within the original horizontal channel area. The AUDUSD is looking indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the identified tightening triangle and around the horizontal levels at 0.7940, 0.8080 and 0.8120.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP is struggling to swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.8780 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8900. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.9040.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There will be a Speech by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) at 1330 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a potential horizontal channel at 1.1870-1.2020 and a large symmetrical triangle. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if the EURUSD moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1835 and 1.2080.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There will be a Speech by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) at 1330 UTC today. A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke to the upside of the tight range and then reversed around the recent highs. The GBPUSD is ranging again. This time between the recent highs at 1.3595 and the horizontal support at 1.3475. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the previous resistance at 1.3320. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD reversed strongly around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.7400 and around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2310 and 1.2215, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9675 and 0.9640 and around the bullish moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke to the upside of the horizontal channel and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 111.80 and 111.20, around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD reversed bearish around the 38.2% Fib level and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is now swinging lower. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1305.50, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. GOLD may find support and start retracing off the channel support area.
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