Daily Technical Forex Forecast 19.09.2017
EUR/USD
The Euro grew up on Monday, but the move was smooth and on small volume, so we can’t consider this move as a bullish signal. Moreover, given this fact, we can’t point out any new volume level or zone, so the price is still trading in the local consolidation.
That’s why our previous scenario remains the same and we will be able to consider new deals for EUR/USD only after an appearance of large volume and creation of new volume levels, which can be used in trading. Until that it is very difficult to predict further moves of the pair.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD corrected downward on Monday after the rapid price growth last week. It should be noted that the price decline was in the form of a bearish impulse on large volume, which calls into question our previous scenario of opening long positions. It is also necessary to allocate a new level of resistance 1.3531, in which large volume is concentrated.
Nevertheless, given the strong uptrend, we can’t consider the scenario of opening short positions. As for purchases, long positions can be opened after a sharp growth of the price and a breakout of the resistance level on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 110-120 points.
USD/JPY
The price continued growing and finally broke out the resistance. Unfortunately, volume during this move was small, so we can’t consider it as a signal for entering the market.
Anyway, given the local uptrend, we can deliberate long positions after a strong bullish momentum on large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the movement. A potential of the deal is up to 120 pips.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD broke out the upper boundary of the consolidation on large volume. Moreover, the move was sharp which is a good bullish signal. On the other hand, there is a new resistance level 1.2301 – 1.2330, which contains large volume.
That’s why we need to wait for the reaction of the price on this level and after that we can consider opening new deals.
While the pair is trading under this level and do not react on it, we should stay out of the market.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar broke down the lower boundary of the consolidation, but failed to continue falling as the new resistance level 0.7942 – 0.7950 was created. This level contains increased volume, so we can consider opening new deals after seeing a reaction of the price on it. The move of the pair should be sharp and on large volume, so it will be a more accurate signal. Until the price is in the range above this level, we should stay out of the market.
XAU/USD
The price continued falling and totally absorbed previous bullish impulse, which is a good bearish signal. Also we need to point out that the fall was supported by increased volume and the new resistance level was created. It is 1313.10.
So that we can consider opening short positions from this level, but we need to get an additional signal as the uptrend for gold is still actual. Such a signal is a strong bearish impulse after a smooth upward correction. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is 120-130 pips. This deal is more like intraday, because it is too risky to hold such a position for couple of days when the uptrend is still relevant.
The sentiment: this indicator confirms our scenarios for the pound and the yen. For the euro long positions should be in priority, while for the Canadian dollar – short positions. For AUD/USD and XAU/USD the situation is complicated, as this indicator shows equal value.
The bottom line: GBP/USD and USD/JPY are still in priority, for all other instruments we need to get additional signals to be able to consider any concrete scenario.
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