Daily Technical Forex Forecast 12.09.2017
EUR/USD
The downward correction for the Euro continued yesterday. The fall of the price was quite abrupt, but the move was and is on low volume, so we can’t point out any new volume levels or zones and of course, we should consider it as a technical correction, not the reversal signal.
So that we still should give preference to long positions, but only after a stoppage of the correction and a resumption of the growth on large volume. As for short positions, we can consider them after a breakdown of the previous global consolidation at the bottom of the chart.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD continues trading in the local consolidation just below the resistance level 1.3216, where quite large volume is concentrated, which stopped the price growth. Also it is worth noting that increased volume is concentrated in this range too, so we should consider the deal only after its sure breakdown. Given a strong uptrend, preference should be given to long positions.
We can open purchases only after a sharp and sure breakdown of the resistance level on a large volume to avoid false movements. A stop loss should be placed just below the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 100-110 points.
USD/JPY
The pair grew up strongly yesterday and broke out all resistance levels, so now we can’t open short positions. On the other hand, there is a strong downtrend for this currency pair + the growth was on average volume. Yes, we can point out the new support 108.58 – 108.72, but still it is not advisable to trade against such a trend, so that it is better to stay out of the market until the resumption of the fall.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is trading in the consolidation near the local minimum. Given the strong downtrend for this currency pair, we should give preference to short positions.
We can enter the market after a sure breakdown of the lower boundary of the consolidation and only after that we can open short positions. A stop loss should be placed above this consolidation. A potential of the deal is 100+ pips.
AUD/USD
The price is testing the support level 0.8017 – 0.8028 at the moment. The fall and the test of this mark was and is on small volume, so even if the pair breaks it down, we can’t consider this as a strong bearish signal.
Given the uptrend for this currency pair, we should give preference to purchases. We must stay out of the market until the price resumes its growth on large volume. Only after that we can deliberate long positions for the Australian dollar.
XAU/USD
The for gold continued and the price has broken down the previous support level. The downward move of the price was confident, but on low volume, so we can’t point out any new volume level or zone. So it seems like a technical correction after a strong and long growth.
That’s why we still can give preference to long positions, but for that we need to see a stoppage of the fall and a resumption of the uptrend. Moreover, a growth should be supported by increased/large volume.
As for short positions, we should not consider them yet.
The sentiment: our scenarios for GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD are confirmed by the mood fo the market. For the Euro the situation is 50/50, so we need to get additional signals.
The bottom line: on Monday many instruments showed corrections against trends, but volume on the market was low, so we should not consider them as a 100% reversal signals.
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