TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 04, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area and continues to be indecisive. The AUDUSD is ranging between the clear horizontal support at 0.7870 and the recent highs at 0.7995. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Announcement at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has broken to the downside of the recent horizontal channel (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has formed a large head and shoulder price pattern and a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that price could attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.9185, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.9235. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A UK Construction PMI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD struggled to move higher and has found support again at the trend support area. Price is looking a little indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1835 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1925. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – signalling market indecision.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD continues to move within a horizontal channel and has recently reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas (1.2855-1.2975) and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Construction PMI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been rejected around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal support at 0.7195 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is now looking choppy and indecisive. Price may reverse around any of the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the NZDUSD could attempt a swing lower.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the USDCAD could start trending lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel support area at 1.2445/50 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many other currency pairs, the USDCHF is not trending but is indecisive and moving in a general sideways direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Price is moving within 2 horizontal channels. A large horizontal channel at 0.9440-0.9695 and a tighter horizontal channel at 0.9575-0.9675. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out either of the channels (break-out trades).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY is also indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal support and resistance areas at 108.45, 110.65 and 110.90, around the diagonal resistance and around the moving averages. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are starting to widen and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance at 1324.35, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
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