TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 25, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal channel support area. The AUDUSD has not broken to the downside of the horizontal channel but has continued to be indecisive. The moving averages now confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 0.7870-0.7960, a tighter horizontal channel at 0.7870-0.7915 and a descending triangle (horizontal support at 0.7870 and identified diagonal resistance area). Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if the AUDUSD moves out of any consolidation pattern (break-out trades).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bullish around the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The bullish move soon reversed around the identified horizontal resistance and recent high at 0.9235, price has since been retracing. The EURGBP has moved below the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening and that price may continue to retrace. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9145. If the EURGBP does attempt a bullish move, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9235.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A German Business Climate figure will be released at 0800 UTC today. The President (Draghi) of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1900 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840. Price is also ranging between tighter horizontal levels at 1.1735 and 1.1825. Trading opportunities may exist around both range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of either range (break-out trades). The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A German Business Climate figure will be released at 0800 UTC today. US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC. The President (Draghi) of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1900 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and attempted to swing lower. The GBPUSD failed to swing lower and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2785-1.2830. The moving averages confirm the current lack of trend direction – they are starting to tighten and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). The GBPUSD is down-trending longer-term. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2845 and 1.2910.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many other currency pairs, the NZDUSD has become indecisive. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.7195 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7235. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the NZDUSD may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDCAD could attempt to move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 1.2530 and 1.2600, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and move within a large horizontal channel at 0.9595-0.9765. The USDCHF is also moving within a tighter horizontal channel at 0.9595-0.9695. Trading opportunities may exist around both horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either channel (break-out trades). The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 109.75. The USDJPY continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 108.65, 109.75 and 110.90 and around the identified diagonal support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Core Durable Goods Orders is at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve (Fed) Speech at 1600 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to consolidate and range between the horizontal support at 1282.95 and the horizontal resistance at 1292.75. Price action has also now formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities may exist around both consolidation patterns support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1297.45. The moving averages are crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
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