TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 24, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and has been moving within a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern and also a horizontal channel at 0.7870-0.7960. Price is attempting a move below the symmetrical triangle support area, suggesting that the AUDUSD may become bearish. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and are widening. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the support and resistance of the recent symmetrical triangle.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was rejected at the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bullish and uptrend. Price is attempting a bearish move and could start retracing. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified trend support areas and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9145.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A UK GDP Second Estimate will be announced at 0830 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840. Price is also ranging between tighter horizontal levels at 1.1735 and 1.1825. Trading opportunities may exist around both range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of either range (break-out trades). The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has moved lower. The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the bearish momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.2845 and around the trend resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK GDP Second Estimate will be announced at 0830 UTC. US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. If price pulls-back, opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.7230 and around the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been reversing around the range support and resistance areas. Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 1.2530 and 1.2605. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Even though price is currently indecisive, the longer-term trend is down and price is moving within a bearish channel. If the USDCAD breaks the range, price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support and resistance areas. The moving averages are tightening and are beginning to move sideways – confirming the current indecision.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and move within a large horizontal channel at 0.9595-0.9765. The USDCHF is also moving within an ascending triangle consolidation pattern (identified diagonal support and the horizontal resistance at 0.9695). Trading opportunities could exist around the ascending triangle support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the triangle pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the large horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many other currency pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum and market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Price may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 108.65, 109.75 and 110.90. If the USDJPY moves below the horizontal support at 108.65, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1282.95-1292.75. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1297.45. Longer-term, price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Long opportunities may exist around the identified trend support area. If price moves below the trend support area and the horizontal channel support, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower.
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