TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 21, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and is forming a swing high. The AUDUSD is looking a little indecisive, suggesting that price may start ranging. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and are tightening. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7870, 0.7960 and 0.7985.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to reverse around the consolidation pattern support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has been up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. Recent price action has been choppy though and is consolidating between the horizontal resistance at 0.9145 and the channel support area (ascending triangle). The moving averages are very tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). Price could reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9055 and the bullish channel resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been rejected off the diagonal resistance area and continues to be indecisive. Price is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.1690-1.1840 and also within a descending triangle (horizontal channel support and the identified diagonal resistance). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation and horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the consolidation or horizontal channel (break-out trades). Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1790.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD continues to range and has been reversing around the range support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2845 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2905. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the GBPUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2955 and 1.3015. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many other currency pairs, the NZDUSD is looking choppy and is indecisive. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7225-0.7330 and has recently reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is also moving within a ascending triangle consolidation pattern (horizontal channel resistance area and the identified diagonal support area). Trading opportunities could exist around both horizontal channel and ascending triangle support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). If price breaks to the upside, the NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7365. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the bearish channel support area. The USDCAD is currently retracing some of the recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and price continues to move within a bearish channel, all signalling that the USDCAD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the newly identified diagonal resistance area, around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 1.2685 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and the horizontal support at 1.2555.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the range support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to range between the horizontal support at 0.9595 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9765. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY moved below the large horizontal channel support area but price quickly reversed the bearish move and continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY is moving within a large horizontal channel at 108.60-110.90. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has swung higher and has formed an uptrend. Price is currently retracing but has found support around the longer-term moving average and the 61.8% Fib level, suggesting that the pull-back may be over. The moving averages are bullish but have been crossing frequently, suggesting that GOLD may attempt a bullish move or become indecisive. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 61.8% Fib level and around the trend support area.
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