TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 17, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been very bullish and has moved above some key resistance levels. The moving averages are becoming more bullish and the AUDUSD is forming a higher swing high, all suggesting that price could attempt to uptrend. The AUDUSD is stalling around the 0.7945 resistance area – price could start retracing. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 0.7915, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7915 and 0.7985.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average and is forming a swing higher. The EURGBP continues to uptrend within a bullish channel but the upside momentum seems to be weakening – price is struggling to reach the channel resistance area and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9090-0.9135. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price may move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9055. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
UK Retail Sales is at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has reversed around the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is clearly down-trending. The GBPUSD is currently retracing some of the recent bearish swing and is finding resistance around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt a swing lower and continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2960. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2845.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
UK Retail Sales is at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.7225-0.7330. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7365.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been very bearish and has moved below some key support areas. The USDCAD is forming a lower swing low and the moving averages are about to cross bearish, suggesting that price may attempt to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2655 and 1.2665 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range resistance area. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.9595 and the recent highs at 0.9765. The moving averages are crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY continues to be indecisive. Price has reversed around the large horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY continues to move within the large horizontal channel at 108.95-110.90. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
US Unemployment Claims is at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the 61.8% Fib level and has since been very bullish. The moving averages are still moving sideways and signalling market indecision. Price may struggle to break the highs at 1291.15 and could start ranging between the recent highs and the horizontal support at 1268.00. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages.
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