Daily Technical Forex Forecast 17.08.2017

EUR/USD

Despite the strong growth of the price after FOMC Meeting Minutes, the price is still trading in the global consolidation. Moreover, the upward move was sharp but on average volume, so we are unable to point out any new volume levels or zones for the Euro.

So overall nothing has been changed and we can trade this currency pair only after the sure breakout of the boundaries of the consolidation. Until that it is better to stay out of the market.

GBP/USD

The Pound had tested the level of support 1.2959 one more time and rebounded up. The move was rather abrupt, but on medium volume, so that we can’t consider it as a reversal signal. Moreover, given the strong downtrend, we should give preference to short positions.

We can enter the market after a strong breakdown of the level of support on large volume which will be a great signal for the continuation of the downtrend. A stop loss should be placed a little bit above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 130 pips.

USD/JPY

After the test of the level of resistance USD/JPY fell down sharply and on large volume. Now the pair is trading in the middle of the consolidation between two levels: support 108.80 and resistance 110.92. So the scenario is very simple: we need to wait for the exit of the price from this range and then we can regard the possibility of opening new deal.

Until that it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed a strong fall after the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes. The move was abrupt and on large volume. Moreover, the new level of resistance 1.2675 was created, which contains large volume. Given such a strong movement, we should not consider long positions. On the other hand, there is an uptrend, so we need to get a confirming signal to be able to open short positions. Such a signal will be a continuation of the fall on large volume. It is desirable that a bearish momentum starts after a smooth upward correction. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance level. A potential of the deal is around 80-90 pips.

AUD/USD

The situation for the Australian dollar is opposite to USD/CAD, as the price grew up strongly and created the new level of support 0.7880, which contains pretty large volume. So it could be a reversal signal, but we need to get an additional signal to be able to consider long positions. Such a signal will be a strong bullish impulse, especially after a smooth downward correction. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. A potential of the deal is 50-60 pips.

XAU/USD

After the test of the  support level 1267.70 – 1269.70, and a strong rebound upwards, XAU/USD showed significant growth and now is trading near the resistance level of 1291.10. The price growth was supported by large volume, as well as by large ASK deltas, which means the domination of buyers at the moment.
Thus, we can assume that the correction is over and the uptrend for gold continues.

Given all the factors, it is worth giving preference to long positions on gold. We can open purchases after a confident and sharp breakdown of the resistance level 1291.10 on increased/large volume. After the fixation of the price above this mark, we can enter the market. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 130 points.

The sentiment: almost all our scenarios are confirmed by the mood of the market. For the Euro long positions should be in priority, while for the Yen – short positions.

The bottom line: the pound and gold are in priority today. The Australian and the Canadian dollars we need to get strong confirming signals to be able to trade them. For the Euro and Yen we need to wait of the exit of the price from ranges.

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