TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 09, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and has continued to be bearish. The AUDUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7895 and 0.7905, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish. The EURGBP has moved below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the upside momentum may be over. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8975, 0.8990 and 0.9010. Price may become indecisive.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been rejected around the horizontal channel support area and continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.1720-1.1885. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a tightening bearish consolidation pattern and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that the EURUSD may break to the downside of the channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the consolidation resistance area and around the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the consolidation support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending but is currently attempting a bullish move. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support and resistance areas at 1.3015 and 1.3060 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2955.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. The NZDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and also a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the price could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7350, 0.7365 and 0.7395 and around the channel resistance area. The NZDUSD may continue to find support around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce rates at 2100 UTC today. This is followed by a Press Conference at 2200 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2655 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2695. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price is also moving within a bullish channel and has been up-trending and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that the USDCAD may move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has closed below the moving averages and 2 key previous swing lows – signalling that the recent uptrend could be over. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and becoming more bearish. If price continues to retrace the recent bearish move, opportunities to go short may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the support and resistance of the recent horizontal channel (0.9710 & 0.9765). The USDCHF may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9630.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has found support around the horizontal channel support area. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 109.80-110.90. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to move within a bearish channel and is currently testing the bearish channel resistance area. The bearish moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, signalling that GOLD may move above the channel resistance area. Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel support and resistance areas and around the identified horizontal levels at 1253.25, 1269.55 and 1272.95.
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