TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 04, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The bearish diagonal resistance did not hold – the AUDUSD is simply moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are also moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7880, 0.7915, 0.7990 and 0.8040. If price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7880, the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could continue to uptrend. If the EURGBP starts retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance levels at 0.8990 and 0.8975 and around the identified trend support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price found support around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady but the upside momentum seems to be weakening – price is struggling to reach the channel resistance area – suggesting that the EURUSD may move below the bullish channel support area. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.1885 and if price moves below the channel support area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1760.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has moved below the recent bullish channel support area. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, suggesting that price may attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3195 and 1.3250 and around the previous bullish channel support (as resistance). A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3005.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved out of the bearish channel and is now moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7390-0.7450. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7525. If price breaks to the downside, the NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7330. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price could break to the downside.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and was able to close higher. The USDCAD is looking a little indecisive though and has not been able to form a major swing higher. Price is moving between a horizontal support at 1.2540 and a horizontal resistance at 1.2615. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels and if the USDCAD moves out of the current consolidation (break-out trade). The moving averages are still bullish and steady, suggesting that price may move higher.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Trade Balance will be released at the same time.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has moved off the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.9635 and 0.9715. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCHF could stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 0.9590.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved out of the horizontal channel but momentum is weak. The USDJPY has formed a bearish channel and is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bullish though, suggesting market indecision. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 110.10, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area. If price moves above the bearish channel resistance area, the USDJPY may attempt a bullish move higher.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1257.60-1272.95 and be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). A move to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1244.90.
Hits: 4