TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 03, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the moving averages and previous trend support area. The AUDUSD has moved below some key support areas and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening – all suggesting that price may move lower and possibly start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7940 and 0.7990, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the bearish moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7875.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release a Monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales data at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price was rejected around the horizontal channel resistance (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and move within 2 horizontal channels; a tighter channel at 0.8925-0.8970 and a wider channel at 0.8895-0.8990. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around both horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of either channel (break-out trades).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A UK Services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The Bank of England will announce Rates at 1100 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1130 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and continues to move higher. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. If price does move higher, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area. If price moves below the channel support area, the EURUSD may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1760.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD is moving sideways and is ranging between a horizontal support at 1.3195 and a horizontal resistance at 1.3240. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The GBPUSD continues to be bullish longer-term and the moving averages are bullish and are steady – all signalling that price could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A UK Services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The Bank of England will announce Rates at 1100 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1130 UTC. US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal support level and has continued to move lower. The NZDUSD has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and has formed a bearish channel. Price is also moving below key support areas and the moving averages are bearish and are widening – all suggesting that the NZDUSD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7410 and 0.7465, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been a little quiet but has moved slightly higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is still above the recent range resistance area. Price has formed a large double-bottom reversal pattern and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all suggesting that the USDCAD could attempt a move higher. If price starts retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance area at 1.2560, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continued to find support around the 38.2% Fib level and is forming a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). As also suggested, price has become indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9640-0.9715. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 110.10 and the horizontal resistance at 110.90. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 111.65, 112.15 and 112.35.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like some other USD pairs, the XAUUSD is ranging (1257.60-1272.95). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If GOLD breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the previous swing lows at 1245.15 and 1236.70.
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