TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 26, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.7875-0.7965. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 0.7835.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between 2 horizontal levels at 0.8920 and 0.8955. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8990. If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8895 and 0.8830.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1620-1.1695. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The overall trend is up and price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.1580 and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found support around the bullish channel support area and quickly reversed around the channel resistance area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2940, 1.3010, 1.3075 and 1.3120. If the GBPUSD moves below the recent low at 1.2940, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A UK Preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is moving within a tight bearish channel but is also looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7370 and 0.7460.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected around the bearish channel support area. The USDCAD continues to downtrend within the bearish channel. Price is now looking over-extended and recently struggled to reach the other side of the channel, both suggesting that the USDCAD may move out of the bearish channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a horizontal channel at 1.2490-1.2530. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has continued to retrace some of the recent bearish move. Price has been down-trending but the current retracement looks strong and very bullish. The bearish moving averages are tightening, signalling that selling momentum is weakening. Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. The USDCHF may still attempt a new swing low. If price closes above the resistance areas, the USDCHF may possibly move higher.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many currency pairs, the USDJPY is looking indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas (110.70 & 112.35) and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. A FOMC Statement will be released at 1800 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has moved below the recent bullish channel support area. The bullish moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Price is ranging between horizontal levels at 1243.80-1258.00. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area.
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