TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 25, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.7875-0.7965. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 0.7835.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
Australian CPI data is set to be released at 0130 UTC. This is followed by a Reserve Bank of Australia Speech at 0305 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP is currently attempting a bullish swing. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are tightening though and are moving sideways, suggesting that the EURGBP may become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8990, 0.8955 and 0.8895. Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price started retracing some of the recent bullish swing but is now looking slightly indecisive and is currently ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1620 and 1.1680. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price could break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD may reverse around the previous swing high at 1.1580 and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is lacking clear trend direction and has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3050. The GBPUSD continues to move within a bullish channel but the moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – providing conflicting signals. Trading opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support and resistance areas and around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels. The GBPUSD may form a horizontal channel at 1.2940-1.3050. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been rejected around the bullish channel support area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area and around the longer-term moving average. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7460 and around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD moved below the tight horizontal channel support area and continues to downtrend and be bearish. Price is clear down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel levels at 1.2525 and 1.2550, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The USDCAD may stall around the channel support area. Price has been moving within the channel for a number of trading days now, I expect a move out of the channel sometime soon.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to retrace some of the recent bearish move. The USDCHF has been clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous swing low and horizontal support at 0.9525 and around the trend resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9440.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and continues to be bearish. The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 111.60 and around the trend resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been moving higher and continues to be bullish. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1243.80. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
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