Daily Technical Forex Forecast 25.07.2017

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading in consolidation near the local maximum. Monday, as usual, is a fairly low liquid day, so volume on the market was small, that’s why it’s hard to point out new levels. Nevertheless, it is necessary to note a rather large accumulation of volume within this range. Thus, there is either a set of positions, or unloading in this consolidation. To accurately understand what exactly is happening, it is worth waiting for the price to come out from this range on increased volume.
Given the presence of a strong uptrend, long positions in priority.

Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the price growth and confident breakout of the local maximum on increased volume, which will be an excellent signal for opening purchases. A stop loss should be placed just below the breakout volume bar or the level 1.1630 (more reliable option). The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The pound showed a smooth growth on small volume, but is still trading in the consolidation. Due to small volume on the market, we can’t point out any new volume level or zone.

That’s why our previous scenario for the pound remains the same: until the price breaks out the local maximum or large volume appears on the market and creates new volume level, we should skip this currency pair from our trading plan today.

USD/JPY

The price smoothly corrected up, but it is still too far away from the level of resistance 112.19 – 112.26, so now we don’t have a good entry point. That’s why we should wait for further continuation of this smooth growth on small volume and after its stoppage we can open short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is 120 points.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continued falling as the global downtrend is going on. Unfortunately, the fall of the price on Monday was smooth and on small volume. But anyway, it is a good signal for short positions.

Also the level of resistance 1.2554 – 1.2570 is still actual because it contains increased volume.

Given all these facts, we should enter the market after the smooth correction of the price to the resistance and sharp fall of the price. A stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2570 with a little margin. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.

AUD/USD

The situation for this instrument remains the same as it is trading in the consolidation near the local maximum. The resistance level 0.7961 is still actual the same as the strong uptrend. So we can enter the market and open long positions after the strong breakout of the level on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 80 points.

XAU/USD

After the abrupt growth gold began trading in the local consolidation. As for all other majors, volume was small on Monday, so we can’t highlight any new volume levels for this instrument. But we need to point out the presence of quite large volume accumulation in this range.

Of course, the best scenario is the downward correction on small volume and then we can enter the market with a stop loss placed below the global support 1238.30 – 1239.70. But if the price continue growing from the current level and breaks out the local maximum, we can also enter the market and open long positions. A breakout should be supported by increased volume. A stop loss must be placed below the consolidation. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.

The sentiment: all our scenarios are confirmed by the mood of the market except gold. But even here the sentiment started changing, which is a positive sign for us.

The bottom line: due to low liquidity on the market on Monday, all our scenarios remains the same. We need to wait for confirming signals and then we can trade almost all majors except the pound, that has a tough situation right now.

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