TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 21, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the recent swing high at 0.7960. Price has since been bearish. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that the AUDUSD may become indecisive. If is possible that price may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7835 and 0.7965. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trades).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been bullish and has moved out of the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8935 and 0.8895, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1485. The EURUSD is forming a swing higher and is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1580 and 1.1485, around the bullish moving averages and around the identified trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved below the horizontal channel and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and are steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, signalling that the GBPUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3005 and 1.3050. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2935 and around the bearish channel support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous consolidation resistance at 0.7375 and around the newly formed trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD reversed around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2550 and around the channel support area. If price moves above the channel resistance area, a bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2700 and 1.2765.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9610 and has since been very bearish. The USDCHF is forming a swing lower and price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.9525, around the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has now formed a horizontal channel at 111.60-112.35. The USDJPY is moving within the horizontal channel and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trades). If the USDJPY breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 112.85 and 113.55.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD broke to the upside of the recent horizontal channel and continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance area at 1243.80, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
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