Daily Technical Forex Forecast 19.07.2017

EUR/USD

The growth of the euro was stopped yesterday as the new volume resistance level was created that pushed the price down. It is 1.1580. After the creation of this mark the price started correcting down. We should note that the downward move was and is very smooth and on small volume, so we should not consider it as a reversal signal.

So our previous scenario of opening long positions remains relevant. We need to wait for the stoppage of the correction and a resumption of the uptrend. After the breakout of the resistance on increased volume we can open long positions. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is up to 100 pips.

GBP/USD

The pound fell down sharply so the continuation of the uptrend is under the question now. The fall was supported by increased volume, but it was spread throughout the move, so it is impossible to highlight any new volume level or zone.

Given that we have contrary signals, it is better to stay out of the market and wait for the creation of new volume levels or the breakout of the local maximum. Until that, it is better to skip this instrument.

USD/JPY

The fall of USD/JPY was stopped by local consolidation that contains quite large volume. The lower boundary of this range is our new level of support 111.81. So we can re-open short positions only after a confident breakdown of the support on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is trading in the local downward consolidation. Unfortunately, volume has been quite low these 2 days, so we can’t point out any new levels or zones. The only level that can be highlighted is the local minimum 1.2595. From this level the price rebounded up.

Given the global downtrend, we still should consider short positions as a priority scenario. We can enter the market after the strong breakdown of the support on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 110 pips.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continued its growth and the price is trading near the local maximum now. We should note, that at that level a pretty large volume is concentrated which created a local resistance 0.7935. If the price confidently breaks it out, we can enter the market and open long positions. A stop loss should be placed under the level 0.7900. A potential of the deal is 70-80 pips.

XAU/USD

The local uptrend on gold continued, and the price is trading near its local maximum now. Also it is necessary to note the new volume zone 1240.40 – 1242.50, in which very large volume is concentrated. After the formation of this zone, XAU/USD stopped its growth and is in the consolidation within this level.
In addition, it should be noted that the price growth was on increased volume, while the fall was smooth and on small one, which is a good signal for the uptrend to continue .

Thus, considering all the above factors, now it is worth giving preference to long positions on gold. We can open purchases after a confident and sharp breakout of the level 1242.50 and a fixation of the price above it. A stop loss should be placed under the level 1240.40 with a small margin. The growth potential is about 100-110 points.

The sentiment: all our scenarios are confirmed except the one for gold. So it is a good signal for active trading today.

The bottom line: EUR/USD and AUD/USD are still in priority for trading today. USD/JPY and XAU/USD can be traded but after breakouts of volume levels. Be careful with USD/CAD as news for oil will be released today.

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