TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 12, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7625 and 0.7610, around the trend support area and around the moving averages. A bullish swing may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal resistance levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price broke to the downside of the recent range but has since reversed and moved much higher. The EURGBP has now formed a short series of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. If price starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8875 and 0.8855 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found support around the horizontal support at 1.1380. As also suggested, price then closed above the consolidation area and has since been bullish. The EURUSD is now up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1445 and 1.1380, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and continues downtrend within the bearish channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1.2865, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may find support around the channel support area. If the GBPUSD closes below the channel support area, price may attempt a bearish move lower.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. The NZDUSD is now retracing. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt to swing lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 0.7245 and around the identified trend resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2930 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but continues to struggle to swing lower. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. The USDCAD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.2860 and 1.2930. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance levels and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDCAD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2995 and 1.3015.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. Most economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise rates today. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. There is a Bank of Canada Rate Announcement at 1400 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of Canada Press Conference at 1515 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF is consolidating between the horizontal resistance at 0.9690 and the diagonal support area. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has moved below the trend support area. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the USDJPY may become indecisive or that the USDJPY could continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 112.80 and 114.45.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been retracing some of the recent bearish swing. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the previous trend resistance area (as support).
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