TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 11, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has moved above the recent horizontal channel resistance area. Price may now attempt a bullish move. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous channel resistance area at 0.7610, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified trend support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7625.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has found support around the 23.6% Fib level. Price has not moved higher though but is now ranging between the horizontal levels around 0.8835 and 0.8855. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A bullish break-out may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.8875. A bearish break-out could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8810 and 0.8760.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved off the symmetrical triangle resistance area again (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.1315-1.1445 and within a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities may exist around both consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if the price moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). Price action has formed a horizontal level within the consolidation patterns at 1.1380.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the previous swing low at 1.2900. The GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the bearish momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.2900 and 1.2975 and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area. If the GBPUSD closes below the channel support area, price may attempt a bearish move lower.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD moved below the horizontal support at 0.7245 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are starting to widen, suggesting that price may start down-trending. If the NZDUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.7245, around the moving averages and around the identified trend resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and previous support at 1.2925 and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to downtrend. Price is struggling to form a lower swing low, suggesting that the USDCAD may be due a bullish retracement. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.2995 and 1.3015.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. Most economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise rates. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and has moved above the trend resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified trend support area. The USDCHF could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9680.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 113.65.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has reversed around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to be bearish. Price is looking a little choppy, suggesting that GOLD could be due a bullish retracement. The moving averages are still very bearish though. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1214.40, 1218.10 and 1228.10. Price may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1206.65 and 1214.40. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
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