TriumphFX Daily Technical Forex Forecast 11.07.2017

EUR/USD

The euro is still trading in the consolidation between two levels: the support 1.1309 – 1.1329 and the resistance 1.1424. Volume on the market was small yesterday, so we can’t highlight any new volume levels or zones.

Also we need to point out the presence of the strong volume accumulation in this range, so the exit of the price will start a new local trend.

Given the global uptrend and the allocation of the price near the resistance, we can consider opening long positions after the confident breakout of the resistance 1.1424. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 90-100 pips.

Short positions can be considered only after the breakdown of the support level.

GBP/USD

The pound copied the euro and also was trading in the consolidation yesterday. We need to highlight the resistance 1.2904 – 1.2915. This level contains quite large volume, which only increases its importance for trading the pound.

Our previous scenario remains relevant: after the resumption of the fall of the price on large volume, we can enter the market. The move should be confident and sharp. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance with a little margin. A potential of the fall is around 80-90 pips.

Given that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are rather highly correlated, and our scenarios differ, it’s worth to be extremely careful. Do not simultaneously open transactions for both pairs.

USD/JPY

The uptrend for USD/JPY continued as the price grew up. A growth was smooth and without volume. Also, the level of support 113.69 – 111.81 remains actual as it contains large volume.

We can enter the market after the smooth correction of the price to the support and after the resumption of the growth from the level. A stop loss should be placed below the level 113.45.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has tested the level of resistance 1.2893 – 1.2915, but failed to break it out and is trading the below this mark. This level contains pretty large volume + there is a strong downtrend, so our previous scenario of opening short positions remains actual.

We can enter the market after the resumption of the fall on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2935. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.

AUD/USD

The situation here remains the same: the price is in the consolidation. The only thing that we can point out is the volume level 0.7598 – 0.7612, where the price is trading now.

Due to these facts, we can’t trade this currency pair now and need to wait for the strong and confident exit of the price from the range. Until that it’s better to stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

After a sharp fall of the price on Friday, gold showed a small and smooth correction upward and tested the resistance level 1214.60 – 1217.30. Now the price is trading just below this mark. Correction was on small volume + it was spread throughout the price move, so we should not consider purchases now.
It should also be noted that large volume is concentrated in this level, which makes it very important for trading gold.
In addition, the global downtrend for XAU/USD is still relevant, therefore, it is necessary to consider exceptionally short positions.

We can enter the market after the rebound of the price from the level of resistance on increased volume or just after the start of the fall of the pair on average/large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level of 1217.30. Potential of the fall is 130 points.

The sentiment: this indicator still confirms all our deals, but for many of them we need to get additional signals.

The bottom line: the best scenarios are for USD/JPY and gold. USD/CAD is also pretty interesting pair for trading today. AUD/USD is better to skip. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are pretty tough for trading, be careful.

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