TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 06, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.7625. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7570.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between horizontal levels at 0.8760 and 0.8805. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD broke to the downside of the recent range and has since found support around the 50.0% Fib level. Price continues to retrace the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the EURUSD may struggle to form a swing higher. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1400 and 1.1445. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal support at 1.3120 and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has found support around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is slowly climbing higher. The bearish moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2960 and 1.3030.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and are providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. The NZDUSD is still moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7255-0.7345. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous bullish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3010. The USDCAD is now ranging and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2915-1.3015. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has been retracing the recent bearish swing. Price has reversed around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the USDCHF has been finding support and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price could continue to be bullish and struggle to form a swing lower. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9635 and 0.9595. Price may stall or reverse around the trend resistance area.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bullish and has formed a swing higher. As also suggested, price has since been finding support around the horizontal level at 112.85. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that the USDJPY could start ranging. A possible horizontal channel exists at 112.85-113.65. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY could stall or reverse around the trend support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Unemployment Claims at 1230 UTC, Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC and Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD reversed bearish around the shorter-term moving average and around the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now ranging between horizontal levels at 1218.05-1228.15. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance levels and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1241.10.
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