TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 03, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.7625 and around the identified trend support area. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7705.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. Australian Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0130 UTC. This is followed by a Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Announcement at 0430 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8765 and 0.8805. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the high at 0.8875. If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may stall or reverse around the low at 0.8725.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
UK Manufacturing PMI will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has started retracing and has been bearish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the EURUSD may attempt a move higher. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1395-1.1445. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1280.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
US Manufacturing PMI will be released at 1400 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has retraced slightly (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) but is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.2960-1.3030. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2805 and 1.2830.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
UK Manufacturing PMI will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Price recently struggled to reach the channel resistance area and is now retracing towards the channel support area. This suggests that the buying momentum could be weakening and that the NZDUSD may move out of the bullish channel. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten and are moving sideways. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the moving averages. Shorting opportunities could exist if price closes below the bullish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many currency pairs, the USDCAD starting retracing but is now moving in a horizontal channel (1.2960-1.2995). Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDCAD could become bearish. If price breaks to the upside, selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the identified trend resistance area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level. The USDCHF has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. If the longer-term moving average and 23.6% Fib level does not hold, selling opportunities could exist around the other key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support area at 0.9685. The bearish moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, signalling that the retracement may continue.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price found support around the horizontal channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to range between the horizontal levels at 111.80 and 112.85. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 1400 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved below the range support area and is bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous range support at 1241.10, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
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