TriumphFX Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 03-07.07.2017
EUR/USD
EUR/USD continued its growth and the price is trading near the local maximum now. Also we need to highlight the support level 1.1309 – 1.1329 which contains large volume. Exactly this level has pushed the price higher.
Given the presence of the strong uptrend and support, we should consider only long positions for the euro now.
Unfortunately, we can’t enter the market now, because a stop loss will be very big + very often a correction follows after such an abrupt moves. So we need to wait for a smooth correction of the price and then open long positions. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.1309. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.
GBP/USD
The situation for the pound is totally the same as for the euro. There is a strong uptrend and the volume level of support 1.2897 – 1.2910.
That’s why the scenario of trading the pound and the euro is similar: we need to wait for the smooth correction of the price on small volume to obtain a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the support 1.2897. A potential of the deal is 90-100 pips.
USD/JPY
Despite the growth of the price on Friday, this currency pair is trading in the consolidation near the local maximum. Boundaries of the range are the resistance 112.70 and the support 111.85. There is a huge accumulation of volume in this consolidation, so the exit of the price, most probably, will begin the local trend.
Due to these facts we can highlight 2 possible scenario of trading the yen:
- A continuation of the global uptrend and the breakout of the resistance 112.70 on large volume. It’ll be a good signal for opening long positions with a stop loss placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 110-120 pips.
- A resumption of the local fall and a breakdown of the resistance on large volume. The move should be sharp. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the fall is 110 pips.
USD/CAD
The downtrend for USD/CAD continues, with the price fall supported by large volume. Also it is worth noting the resistance level 1.3032, in which fairly large volume is concentrated. In addition, there was a small consolidation at this level, after which the price continued falling.
Given all the above factors, it is necessary to consider only sales. We can open short positions after a small and smooth correction of the price to the resistance. A stop loss should be placed a little above the level 1.3032. The fall potential is more than 100 points.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar tested the support level 0.7663 – 0.7672 on Friday after which the price rebounded up. Given the strong uptrend, it is worth giving preference to long positions.
Purchases can be opened both from the current level or after the appearance of a strong bullish impulse (a more safe scenario). A stop loss should be placed below the level 0.7654. The growth potential is about 90 points.
XAU/USD
The gold tested the support level/lower boundary of the consolidation, but could not break it. Nevertheless, the price did not show any sharp reaction – there was not rebound from the level, so it seems like the pair is willing to breakdown the support and continue falling.
We need to highlight the support level 1239.90 – 1241.70 which is cornerstone of trading gold.
If the price breaks down this level on large volume, we can enter the market and open short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the fall is 150 pips.
If the price continues trading in the range, we should stay out of the market.
The sentiment: as can be seen from the chart below, all our scenarios, except the one for the yen, are confirmed by the sentiment. The situation for the yen is 50/50, so we need to wait for the exit of the price from the range.
The bottom line: there are a plenty of interesting deals, so we just need to wait for good entry points and trade them. EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD are in priority now.
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