TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 30, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the buying momentum has continued and price is continues to be bullish. The moving averages are still bullish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may uptrend. Price is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that the AUDUSD could be due a retracement before attempting a move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.7625 and around the trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction. The EURGBP has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.8775 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8775-0.8805. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the swing high at 0.8875.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
A UK Current Account figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is stalling around 1.1445 and is struggling to close above this area, suggesting that the EURUSD could become bearish and start retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous swing high at 1.1280. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that if price does retrace the EURUSD is likely to attempt a swing higher and try to uptrend.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is looking a little over-extended still, signalling that the GBPUSD may be due a retracement. If price does start retracing, long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2830 and 1.2805 and around the identified trend support area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that if the GBPUSD does start retracing, price may attempt a bullish swing higher.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A UK Current Account figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the bullish channel support area and continues to move higher. As also suggested, the NZDUSD is stalling around the range resistance at 0.7335. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7255-0.7335 and the NZDUSD is ranging within the channel. Price is also up-trending within a bullish channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. If the USDCAD starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3180 and 1.3205.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has formed a swing lower and is currently retracing a little. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower. If the retracement continues, selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.9595 and around any of the key Fib levels. The USDCHF may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9550.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved below the moving averages but is finding support around the previous resistance at 111.80. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling that the USDJPY may becoming indecisive or possibly attempt a move lower. Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 111.80 and 112.85. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance levels and of the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price moves below the horizontal support at 111.80, the USDJPY could attempt a bearish move lower.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the horizontal channel support at 1241.10. Price continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1241.10-1257.65. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a tightening triangular pattern and GOLD is consolidating between the horizontal support and the identified diagonal resistance. Shorting opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance.
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