TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 29, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue and that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.7625, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has re-entered the consolidation area and is once again looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways. Price found support around the previous symmetrical triangle support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but is lacking direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8770 and 0.8875.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price retraced some of the recent bullish move and has since moved much higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the EURUSD could continue to uptrend. Price is looking a little over-extended, signalling that a retracement may be due. If the EURUSD does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1280.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2805 and has since been very bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. The GBPUSD is looking over-extended though, suggesting that a retracement could be due. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2805 and around the identified trend support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price action has formed 2 bullish channels and also a horizontal channel at 0.7250-0.7330. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the support areas of the bullish channels and around the moving averages. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the resistance areas of the bullish channels.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bearish and has moved lower. The moving averages continue to be bearish and are now widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3180 and 1.3200 and around the trend resistance area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price started retracing during yesterday’s trading sessions and was rejected around the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF has since been bearish and is forming a swing lower. The moving averages are very bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9660 and 0.9685.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area and has been bullish. The USDJPY is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 111.90 and 112.45. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDJPY could break to the upside and continue uptrend.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Unemployment Claims and a Final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to range. Price action has now formed a horizontal channel at 1241.50-1257.40. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
Hits: 1