TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 28, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The AUDUSD is ranging between horizontal levels at 0.7535 and 0.7630. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be announced at 1430 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the symmetrical triangle resistance area and has since been bullish. As also suggested, the EURGBP stalled around the identified horizontal levels. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8860 and 0.8840, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the support and resistance of the recent symmetrical triangle.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is a European Central Bank and Bank of England Speech at 1330 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has been very bullish and has moved above the recent horizontal channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may start up-trending. Price is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that the EURUSD may be due a retracement. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1280 and around the moving averages.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is a ECB Speech at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD broke to the upside of the tight horizontal channel at 1.2710-1.2755 and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2805, 1.2755 and 1.2710 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is a Bank of England Speech at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has attempted a bullish break-out (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the range resistance has held. The NZDUSD continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.7180 and 0.7320. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the NZDUSD could break to the upside of the range. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be announced at 1430 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has moved below the horizontal channel support area and is bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3180 and 1.3200, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is a Bank of Canada Speech at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been very bearish and has moved below the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF could start down-trending. Price is currently struggling to close lower, suggesting that the USDCHF may start retracing. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9660 and 0.9685, around the support and resistance of the recent bearish channel and around the bearish moving averages.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be announced at 1430 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY was rejected around the shorter-term moving average and has since moved higher. Price is up-trending and has formed higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support areas and around the previous range resistance at 111.75. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum could continue.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is a Bank of Japan Speech at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to range. Price action has now formed a horizontal channel at 1241.50-1257.40. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
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