Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 21, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has moved below the range support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt to move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support area at 0.7575 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7520.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels. If price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.8865, the EURGBP could attempt a bullish move higher.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal support at 1.1140 and has since been bearish. The EURUSD is below some clear swing lows and the moving averages are bearish and are steady, all suggesting that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous support at 1.1140 and around the bearish moving averages.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved below the symmetrical triangle support area and has since been very bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has also closed below the horizontal channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 1.2640, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the long-term trend resistance area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has moved out of the recent symmetrical triangle pattern but continues to range within the horizontal channel at 0.7185-0.7315. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current lack of trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the previous symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today. This is followed by a Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Announcement at 2100 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like some other USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3180-1.3295 and a symmetrical triangle pattern. The USDCAD is consolidating within both patterns. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around either consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). If the USDCAD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.3425.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price attempted another bullish move but has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.9760. The moving averages are bullish but are tightening, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a bearish move towards the bullish channel support area. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 0.9760. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area. If price does move higher in today’s trading sessions, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price was rejected around the horizontal resistance at 111.75 a few times (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and the USDJPY has since been bearish. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could continue to uptrend. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 110.65 and 110.30. The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 111.75.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Crude Oil Inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is tightly ranging between the horizontal levels at 1242.35 and 1247.15. The moving averages are still bearish and are steady, signalling that the recent selling momentum may continue. Price action has formed 2 bearish channels and GOLD is moving within both. Shorting opportunities could exist around both bearish channel resistance areas and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). GOLD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support areas.
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