Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 15, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous range support and resistance at 0.7565 and 0.7520 and around the trend support area. Price is struggling to pass the horizontal level at 0.7625 and has been rejected a number of times at this level. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around this horizontal resistance.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8765 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8765-0.8865 and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8650.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
UK Retail Sales data will be released at 0830 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Rate Announcement at 1100 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and was then bullish. As also suggested, the EURUSD then reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 1.1280. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive and is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.1165-1.1285. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.2640 and 1.2805. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
UK Retail Sales data will be released at 0830 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Rate Announcement at 1100 UTC. A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been very bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the swing higher has since been reversed. Even though price has been bullish, the NZDUSD is looking slightly indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt another bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7170. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7315.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has started retracing some of the recent bearish move. Price action is forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern, suggesting that the retracement could continue. There is a possibility though that the USDCAD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3175 and 1.3255. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the shorter-term moving average.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area but has since reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.9725 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is now moving within a larger horizontal channel at 0.9660-0.9725. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9615.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
The Swiss National Bank will announce Rates at 0730 UTC today. This is followed by a US Unemployment Claims figure at 1230 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many currency pairs, the USDJPY is looking indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Bank of Japan will announce Rates around 0200/0400 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide clear trading opportunities. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1260.00, 1281.00 and 1294.25. If GOLD moves below the horizontal support at 1260.00, price may attempt a bearish move lower.
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