Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 14, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.7520 and 0.7565. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC. Australian Employment figures will be announced at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending and price could be in the process of forming a swing low. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that that the EURGBP could attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8750 and 0.8765.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

A UK Average Earnings figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD is choppy and indecisive. Price is moving between a number of horizontal levels. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels. If the EURUSD moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.1280, price may attempt a bullish move higher. If the EURUSD moves below the horizontal support at 1.1165, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2640-1.2770 and price has been moving off the channel resistance area. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A UK Average Earnings figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found support around the moving averages and continues to move within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are starting to widen, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. The NZDUSD is currently attempting a move above the channel resistance area. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7180. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC. New Zealand GDP will be announced at 2245 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has continued to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could start down-trending. Price is looking over-extended, signalling that the USDCAD could start retracing. If the USDCAD does start retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9665-0.9700 and the USDCHF is ranging within the channel. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9725. If the USDCHF breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9615.

The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Just like many currency pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and is ranging. Price is moving between the horizontal levels at 109.15 and 110.75. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve rate is at 1.00%. A rate hike to 1.25% is expected today. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The Fed will Announce Rates at 1800 UTC. There will then be a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD was bearish but has reversed around the horizontal support at 1260.00. Price continues to be indecisive. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide clear trading opportunities. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1260.00 and 1294.25.

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