Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 13, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7515 and 0.7565. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bullish and are widening, signalling that price could continue to uptrend. If the EURGBP starts retracing, buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8750 and 0.8765.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
UK CPI data will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the bearish channel resistance area. The EURUSD continues to move within a bearish channel. The bearish moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that price may continue to move within the large horizontal channel at 1.1165-1.1280. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and is now forming a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the GBPUSD could continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765 and 1.2780. Price may start ranging between 1.2640 and 1.2765 and form a horizontal channel.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
UK CPI data will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a US PPI figure at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are still moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the NZDUSD is moving within the channel. Long opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7220 and 0.7180, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been very bearish. The moving averages have crossed bearish and price is below the recent consolidation area, both signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support at 1.3430 and around the bearish moving averages.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bullish around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9670 and is now attempting to swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF has formed a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.9670. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a move higher.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Once again, the USDJPY is looking choppy and indecisive. Price recently moved below the bullish channel support area and the moving averages. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. From a technical view, there are very few areas that may provide clear trading opportunities. The USDJPY could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 109.15 and 110.75.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected this month (June 2017) though US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has moved slightly lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide clear trading opportunities. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that GOLD may move lower. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1260.00 and 1294.25.
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